Will Mark Sanford be the Republican nominee for SC-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Mark Sanford be the Republican nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 639% annualized return versus just 11.9% for No, suggesting either significant underpricing of Sanford's nomination chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 639% annualized return versus just 11.9% for No, suggesting either significant underpricing of Sanford's nomination chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract. The 19¢ price has declined 37% over the past week (from 15¢ to 12¢), indicating deteriorating sentiment, though the thin $939 open interest and $107 daily volume raise liquidity concerns for meaningful position sizing. With 419 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market has time for information to resolve uncertainty, but the wide 8¢ spread reflects low conviction among market participants.
Resolution rules
If Mark Sanford wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSC01R-26-MSAN yes 100