Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market prices Mike Lee's Supreme Court nomination at just 5¢ despite offering an extraordinary 869% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about his nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market prices Mike Lee's Supreme Court nomination at just 5¢ despite offering an extraordinary 869% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about his nomination prospects. The 945% realized volatility and 5.32 vol ratio indicate this contract experiences dramatic swings, with the price nearly doubling from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days before settling at 5¢, though the thin $302 daily volume and $8.5k open interest raise questions about whether these moves reflect genuine information or low-liquidity noise. With over 1,000 days until expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than a liquid pricing mechanism.
Resolution rules
If Mike Lee is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-ML yes 100