Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$183
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
942 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Amul Thapar
KXSCOURT-29-AT
Cluster 2
Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Aileen Cannon
KXSCOURT-29-AC
Cluster 3
Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Neomi Rao
KXSCOURT-29-NR
Cluster 4
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: James Ho
KXSCOURT-29-JH
Cluster 5
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Andrew Oldham
KXSCOURT-29-AO
Cluster 6
Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Patrick Bumatay
KXSCOURT-29-PB
Cluster 7
Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Kenneth Lee
KXSCOURT-29-KL
Cluster 8
Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Mike Lee
KXSCOURT-29-ML
Cluster 9
Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Ted Cruz
KXSCOURT-29-TED
Cluster 10
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: D. John Sauer
KXSCOURT-29-JSAU
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that U.S. Senator Mike Lee from Utah becomes the next Supreme Court Justice. Currently valued at 7%, this reflects a relatively low position among other judicial candidates being tracked. The level appears influenced by two primary factors: whether a vacancy occurs on the Court and, if one does, whether President Trump nominates Lee as his choice. Lee has strong conservative credentials and prior judicial experience, but the market shows higher confidence in other potential nominees like John Sauer and James Ho. The resolution of this contract depends on whether an actual Supreme Court vacancy materializes and the nomination decisions made in response. Major shifts in this probability would likely occur following an announced retirement or death of a sitting Justice, combined with signals about Trump's nomination preferences.
- ›Current Supreme Court composition has nine sitting justices with no announced retirements as of May 2026, making nomination timing highly uncertain
- ›Lee's judicial background and conservative track record provide a plausible nomination path, but market participants assign higher probabilities to competing candidates John Sauer (5¢) and James Ho (12¢)
- ›Trump's explicit nomination statements or public signals about intended nominees would significantly move probabilities for specific candidates
- ›An actual Supreme Court vacancy announcement would likely shift total probability mass among all candidates rather than increase Lee's relative standing
- ›Market volume remains low across judicial nomination contracts ($621 for the top contract), suggesting limited information certainty and potential for repricing based on new political developments
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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