Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. Patrick Bumatay's Supreme Court odds have doubled from 4¢ to 6¢ over the past week, though the 6% implied probability remains extremely low with minimal liquidity at just $7,270 open interest and $500 daily volume.
Analysis
Patrick Bumatay's Supreme Court odds have doubled from 4¢ to 6¢ over the past week, though the 6% implied probability remains extremely low with minimal liquidity at just $7,270 open interest and $500 daily volume. The asymmetric 566% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 2.3% on No reflects the long-shot nature of this bet, with over 1,000 days until expiration providing substantial time for judicial vacancies and nomination dynamics to shift. The zero spread and neutral regime suggest the market is relatively efficient despite thin trading, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful binary event risk concentrated around potential Supreme Court vacancies.
Resolution rules
If Patrick Bumatay is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-PB yes 100