Will Ernest Mackins be the Democratic nominee for SC-03?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Ernest Mackins be the Democratic nominee for SC-03?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in Ernest Mackins's nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in Ernest Mackins's nomination prospects. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction in his candidacy, though the unusually high 158.7% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market may be mispriced given the long 563-day timeframe to the 2027 close date. The stagnant 7-day price action and low cliff risk score suggest this is a dormant market awaiting either candidate emergence or increased Democratic primary activity in South Carolina's 3rd district.
Resolution rules
If Ernest Mackins wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 SC-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCPRIMARY-03D26-EMAC yes 100