Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making it effectively non-functional despite the 563-day time horizon until the 2026 nomination process.
Analysis
This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making it effectively non-functional despite the 563-day time horizon until the 2026 nomination process. The 91¢ price on the "No" side (implying William Timmons will not be nominated) suggests near-certainty he won't secure the nomination, yet the extreme 655.5% implied yield on "No" and the 8¢ spread indicate the market is too illiquid to trust as a genuine probability estimate. The high Cliff Risk Index of 10 and the stagnant 7-day price movement reflect a dead market that would require significant capital injection to become a useful prediction mechanism.
Resolution rules
If William Timmons wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCPRIMARY-04R26-WTIM yes 100