Will Scott Schlagel be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Scott Schlagel be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in Scott Schlagel's nomination prospects for the 2026 South Dakota at-large House race.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in Scott Schlagel's nomination prospects for the 2026 South Dakota at-large House race. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero probability, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 1016%, indicating the market is pricing in either negligible demand or potential mispricing given the 563-day timeframe to the November 2027 close. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 combined with the neutral regime score suggests this is a speculative, low-confidence market that may lack sufficient information or participant conviction to establish meaningful price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Scott Schlagel wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 SD-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-SSCH yes 100