Will the White House Press Secretary say Biden at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Biden at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest minimal real trading activity: the $11.64 open interest matches 24-hour volume exactly, the 13¢ spread represents 26% of the midpoint, and realized volatility of 2,302% is extraordinarily high for a binary event just 21 days from expiry.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest minimal real trading activity: the $11.64 open interest matches 24-hour volume exactly, the 13¢ spread represents 26% of the midpoint, and realized volatility of 2,302% is extraordinarily high for a binary event just 21 days from expiry. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 51¢ indicates a dramatic shift in sentiment or a small number of trades moving the thin order book substantially, while the matched yields above 1,700% reflect the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge. With an information arrival rate of only 0.6 events per hour and neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliably predictive of whether the Press Secretary will mention Biden at her next briefing.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Biden at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-BIDE yes 100