Will the White House Press Secretary say Ceasefire at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Ceasefire at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows explosive implied yields (3288% for Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $647.53 and a wide 13¢ spread, making these theoretical returns unrealistic for actual traders.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows explosive implied yields (3288% for Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $647.53 and a wide 13¢ spread, making these theoretical returns unrealistic for actual traders. The 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 56¢ suggests recent information arrival (2.1 events/hour) has dramatically shifted expectations toward a ceasefire statement, though the extreme realized volatility of 2236% indicates high uncertainty and potential for sharp reversals before the May 7 expiry. With only 21 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this appears to be a low-liquidity event market where the headline probability should be discounted significantly due to execution constraints.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Ceasefire at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-CEAS yes 100