Will the White House Press Secretary say Fake News at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Fake News at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. The Yes contract shows an extreme 6110% implied yield despite modest 27% pricing, reflecting the binary nature of a specific phrase utterance over just 18 days—this massive yield-to-probability disconnect suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are heavily discounting the likelihood of the phrase appearing.
Analysis
The Yes contract shows an extreme 6110% implied yield despite modest 27% pricing, reflecting the binary nature of a specific phrase utterance over just 18 days—this massive yield-to-probability disconnect suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are heavily discounting the likelihood of the phrase appearing. Price surged 92% over seven days (2¢ to 25¢) with 707% realized volatility and a 0.9/hour information arrival rate, indicating recent news or commentary may have shifted expectations around press briefing rhetoric. The thin $356 open interest and low 24-hour volume of $248 raise liquidity concerns for position sizing, though the tight 2¢ spread suggests some market maker presence.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Fake News at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-FAKE yes 100