Will the White House Press Secretary say Gas / Gasoline at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Gas / Gasoline at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility despite the high implied probability, with only $1.26 in 24-hour volume and a massive 52¢ spread that dwarfs typical trading activity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility despite the high implied probability, with only $1.26 in 24-hour volume and a massive 52¢ spread that dwarfs typical trading activity. The Yes position's 5043% implied yield is extraordinarily high relative to the 21-day timeframe, suggesting either severe mispricing or minimal confidence in the 78¢ price given the realized volatility of 2486% and the recent price jump from 2¢ to 26¢ over seven days. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and an information arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour, this appears to be a low-liquidity novelty market where the stated probability should be treated with significant skepticism.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Gas / Gasoline at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-GAS yes 100