What is the current probability for "Will the White House Press Secretary say NATO at her next press briefing?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 32¢ (32% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 16 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the White House Press Secretary say NATO at her next press briefing?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5763.4% and 961.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the White House Press Secretary say NATO at her next press briefing?

Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say NATO at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 31¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing.

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32¢

Bid/Ask 28/33¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $486.82·OI $2,498.13·Closes May 7, 2026·16d remaining

KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-NATO

7-day price134 snapshots · 29 regime

31¢31¢ current

Apr 162¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 31¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing. The 0¢ bid price conflicts sharply with the 10¢ ask (up from 2¢ seven days ago), implying a 15,948% yield on the Yes side—a red flag indicating the market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust either side's pricing. With 21 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield figures are artifacts of illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

If the White House Press Secretary says NATO at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5763.4%

IY (No) 961.5%

Adj IY 2882%

CRI 2

Overround 9.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5763.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	961.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2882%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:57:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-NATO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →