Will the White House Press Secretary say Oil at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Oil at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. The market shows extreme illiquidity with only $135.55 in 24-hour volume matching open interest, creating a dangerously wide 35¢ spread and inflated implied yields exceeding 1,200% on both sides.
Analysis
The market shows extreme illiquidity with only $135.55 in 24-hour volume matching open interest, creating a dangerously wide 35¢ spread and inflated implied yields exceeding 1,200% on both sides. Price has surged dramatically from 2¢ to 42¢ over seven days before settling at 60¢, suggesting either new information about an upcoming briefing or thin-market manipulation, while the 2.0 info arrival rate indicates active discussion. With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a low-liquidity novelty market where the 60% probability should be treated skeptically given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Oil at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-OIL yes 100