Will the White House Press Secretary say Pakistan at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Pakistan at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting no real price discovery is occurring at the 0¢ level.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting no real price discovery is occurring at the 0¢ level. The astronomical 9294% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of near-zero pricing in binary markets with minimal trading activity, making the probability estimate unreliable. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 16¢ over seven days and high realized volatility (2877%) indicate sporadic, low-conviction trades rather than informed positioning, and with only 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market lacks the depth needed for meaningful analysis.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Pakistan at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-PAKI yes 100