Will the White House Press Secretary say Pakistan at her next press briefing?

Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Pakistan at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting no real price discovery is occurring at the 0¢ level.

███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
58¢
Bid/Ask 54/57¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $277.06·OI $2,070.41·Closes May 7, 2026·16d remaining
KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-PAKI
7-day price186 snapshots · 26 regime
60¢54¢ current
Apr 162¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting no real price discovery is occurring at the 0¢ level. The astronomical 9294% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of near-zero pricing in binary markets with minimal trading activity, making the probability estimate unreliable. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 16¢ over seven days and high realized volatility (2877%) indicate sporadic, low-conviction trades rather than informed positioning, and with only 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market lacks the depth needed for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If the White House Press Secretary says Pakistan at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2005.3%
IY (No) 2763.5%
Adj IY 1382%
CRI 1
Overround 9.6%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2005.3%
IY (No)2763.5%
Adj IY1382%
CRI1
Overround9.6%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:58:01 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-PAKI yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions