Will the White House Press Secretary say Tariff at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Tariff at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a straightforward 51-51 proposition, with only $50.63 in 24-hour volume and identical open interest suggesting minimal real trading activity.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a straightforward 51-51 proposition, with only $50.63 in 24-hour volume and identical open interest suggesting minimal real trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (1700-1842%) and realized volatility of 17,447% are artifacts of the tiny position sizes rather than genuine opportunity, while the 49-point price jump over 7 days (2¢ to 51¢) indicates low confidence in the current midpoint. With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market is too thin and volatile for meaningful analysis—the next press briefing occurrence will likely resolve this quickly once it occurs.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Tariff at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-TARI yes 100