Will SNP win above 60 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will SNP win above 60 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2027. This illiquid micro-market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite offering asymmetric yield opportunities, with the No side yielding 111.1% compared to 80.6% for Yes, suggesting meaningful disagreement about SNP's prospects.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite offering asymmetric yield opportunities, with the No side yielding 111.1% compared to 80.6% for Yes, suggesting meaningful disagreement about SNP's prospects. The 7¢ spread is wide relative to the $244.87 open interest, and the modest 1¢ price movement over seven days indicates the market lacks conviction or participants. With 386 days until expiry and neutral regime conditions, the 61¢ price appears tentative given the illiquidity and may not reflect informed consensus on whether the SNP will exceed 60 seats in the 2026 election.
Resolution rules
If SNP has won above 60 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSNPMAJORITY-26MAY07-A60 yes 100