What is the current probability for "Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 90¢ (90% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 31, 2026. 100 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45.0% and 2946.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing July 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Messi will participate in the 2026 World Cup, with the price rising 4 cents over the past week, though the $1 daily volume and $5,413 open interest suggest thin liquidity.

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90¢

Bid/Ask 89/90¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $897.8·OI $7,086.03·Closes Jul 31, 2026·100d remaining

KXSOCCERPLAYMESSI-26

7-day price64 snapshots · 47 regime

96¢89¢ current

Apr 984¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Messi will participate in the 2026 World Cup, with the price rising 4 cents over the past week, though the $1 daily volume and $5,413 open interest suggest thin liquidity. The asymmetric implied yields (18.3% for Yes vs. 6597% for No) indicate severe mispricing on the No side, likely reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine uncertainty about whether the 37-year-old Messi will make Argentina's squad in 105 days. The 2-cent spread is reasonable given the low volume, but the cliff risk index of 19 suggests potential for sharp moves if new information emerges about Messi's fitness or retirement plans.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 92¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 36.0%Close-time delta 292h

Resolution rules

If Lionel Messi is on the final squad for their country in the World Cup 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.0%

IY (No) 2946.3%

Adj IY 2946%

CRI 8

RV 191%

VR 2.75

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2946.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2946%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	191%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:34:14 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSOCCERPLAYMESSI-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →