What is the current probability for "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Stripe IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1219.2% and 9.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Stripe IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that When will Stripe IPO?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 11% probability of Stripe going public by April 2027, but the extremely thin liquidity ($697 open interest, $69 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 8/16¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $697·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXSTRIPEIPO-27APR01

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing an 11% probability of Stripe going public by April 2027, but the extremely thin liquidity ($697 open interest, $69 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric 1202% implied yield on Yes positions versus 9.1% on No indicates strong structural demand for long-shot IPO bets, though the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime suggest limited recent information flow to justify the current odds.

Resolution rules

If Stripe confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1219.2%

IY (No) 9.2%

Adj IY 610%

CRI 12

Overround -0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1219.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	610%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:37:02 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSTRIPEIPO-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →