What is the current probability for "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Stripe IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1699.6% and 9.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Stripe IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that When will Stripe IPO?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $548 open interest, making the 13% price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 7/16¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $607.02·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXSTRIPEIPO-27FEB01

7-day price28 snapshots · 2 regime

9¢7¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 17

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $548 open interest, making the 13% price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate. The astronomical 1970% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the wide 10¢ spread and thin order book rather than genuine market conviction, while the 7-day decline from 9¢ to 6¢ suggests recent selling pressure. With 290 days to expiration and a moderate 16 cliff risk index, traders should be cautious of the wide bid-ask spread and consider this contract suitable only for those with strong conviction and ability to hold illiquid positions.

Resolution rules

If Stripe confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1699.6%

IY (No) 9.6%

Adj IY 850%

CRI 13

Overround -0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1699.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	850%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:37:00 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSTRIPEIPO-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →