When will Stripe IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that When will Stripe IPO?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of IPO probability at just 14 cents despite Stripe's repeated public signals about going public.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of IPO probability at just 14 cents despite Stripe's repeated public signals about going public. The $0 24-hour volume combined with only $1,181 open interest and a wide 4-cent spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the price potentially unreliable and difficult to trade at quoted levels. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market carries significant execution risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no obvious macro headwinds are currently priced in.
Resolution rules
If Stripe confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSTRIPEIPO-27JAN01 yes 100