Will I’m The Problem be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will I’m The Problem be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date t.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.4% on the No side, suggesting the 5¢ price may be artificially depressed due to minimal liquidity—only $38 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.4% on the No side, suggesting the 5¢ price may be artificially depressed due to minimal liquidity—only $38 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity. The cliff risk index of 19 is notably elevated, reflecting uncertainty around whether "I'm The Problem" will even be released or achieve sufficient streaming volume by year-end 2026 to crack a top-3 album spot. At current pricing, this appears to be a speculative long shot with significant binary risk rather than a liquid prediction market.
Resolution rules
If I’m The Problem is the #3 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPALBUMTHIRDUSA-26-MOR yes 100