Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14¢ price implying only 14% probability of Trump's approval exceeding 45% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 844.6% annualized yield—a red flag for either severe undervaluation or unpriced tail risks.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14¢ price implying only 14% probability of Trump's approval exceeding 45% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 844.6% annualized yield—a red flag for either severe undervaluation or unpriced tail risks. The $0 24-hour volume and thin $4,086 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 4¢ spread indicates market uncertainty. The recent price movement from 12¢ to 14¢ combined with 265 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggests this contract may be mispriced due to low trading activity rather than informed consensus.
Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 45%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-45 yes 100