Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub
Leader sits at 21% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 43%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Above 44%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$453
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
203 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 43%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 50%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-50
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 45%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-45
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 49%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-49
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 48%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-48
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 47%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-47
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 46%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-46
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 44%
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-44
Analysis
This market estimates a 24% chance that Donald Trump's approval rating will exceed 45% at some point between December 2025 and December 2026, based on VoteHub data. The low probability reflects market expectations that his approval will remain constrained during this period. Related contracts show traders assign higher odds (43-83%) to his approval staying below 35-38%, suggesting consensus centers on a lower approval range. The gap between this 45% threshold and the range below 38% indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether his approval could recover to stronger levels. Key drivers include economic conditions, major legislative outcomes, and external events during the 12-month window. Monthly approval releases from VoteHub will continuously update expectations as actual ratings emerge, particularly if near-term data shows movement toward or away from the 45% level.
- ›The current leader contract (24¢) reflects belief approval stays below 45% for the entire Dec 2025-Dec 2026 period, while the 38% threshold contract (83¢) implies 83% odds approval never exceeds 38%
- ›Economic data releases, quarterly GDP reports, and employment figures during 2026 will directly influence approval trends and retest this threshold
- ›VoteHub's monthly approval ratings provide objective, measurable data points that will resolve outcome uncertainty without interpretation
- ›The 20¢ price on a May 2026 above-40% outcome suggests near-term approval is expected to remain constrained below historical presidential averages
- ›A gap exists between moderate confidence in sub-38% outcomes versus lower confidence in sub-33% outcomes (27¢), indicating some tail risk to higher approval readings
What moved the line
- Jun 17Above 43%↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 45%↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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