What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 49,044% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation risk given the minimal $195 daily volume against $1.2K open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 49,044% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation risk given the minimal $195 daily volume against $1.2K open interest. The price has collapsed 73% over seven days (from 34¢ to 9¢), and with only 8 days until expiry and a 10/10 cliff risk index, there's acute tail risk if Trump attends and mentions the date. The 3¢ spread and 1,945% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative micro-market where small trades can swing pricing dramatically.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump says November 5 as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR25-NOVE yes 100