Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2030. This market on Ekrem İmamoğlu winning Turkey's next presidential election shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $848 open interest, paired with a wide 7¢ spread that suggests difficulty executing trades.
Analysis
This market on Ekrem İmamoğlu winning Turkey's next presidential election shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $848 open interest, paired with a wide 7¢ spread that suggests difficulty executing trades. The 221.7% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 2.7% on the No side, indicating either significant underpricing of İmamoğlu's chances or a highly speculative position with thin order books. With 1,482 days until expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract carries substantial uncertainty, and the recent price decline from 11¢ to 10¢ may reflect broader political sentiment shifts rather than meaningful market activity.
Resolution rules
If Ekrem İmamoğlu wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTURKEYPRES-28-EIMA yes 100