Who will win the next Turkish presidential election

30-day trend

Analysis

This 47% probability represents the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Turkey's next presidential election, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. The price reflects uncertainty about the timing and eligibility of Turkey's electoral cycle, as well as domestic political conditions. The main factors supporting this level are the incumbent's historical advantages in Turkish elections and current polling standing. Conversely, economic conditions, coalition dynamics, and opposition momentum could shift expectations downward. The most significant near-term catalyst will be the formal announcement of the election date by Turkey's electoral commission, followed by campaign developments and any shifts in polling data. Market prices also suggest material uncertainty about secondary candidates, with runner-up prices clustering between 11-18 cents, indicating genuine competitive dynamics rather than consensus around any single alternative.

• ›Turkish electoral law allows presidential contests every five years; the timing of the next election (whether held in 2028 or earlier) directly affects candidate eligibility and incumbent advantage
• ›Polling data on approval ratings and candidate preference among Turkish voters will shift market prices as new surveys are released
• ›Economic conditions in Turkey—inflation, currency stability, and growth—historically influence presidential approval and opposition support
• ›Coalition negotiations and opposition candidate selection will clarify the competitive field; formal endorsements or withdrawals materially affect individual candidate probabilities
• ›The incumbent's ability to modify electoral rules or extend terms (as precedent allows in Turkish politics) creates structural uncertainty about the baseline scenario

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds