Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2030. This market prices Mansur Yavaş at just 3% to win the next Turkish presidential election, generating an extraordinary 796.5% implied yield for Yes holders—a figure that warrants skepticism given the candidate's competitive standing in Turkish politics.
Analysis
This market prices Mansur Yavaş at just 3% to win the next Turkish presidential election, generating an extraordinary 796.5% implied yield for Yes holders—a figure that warrants skepticism given the candidate's competitive standing in Turkish politics. The 1¢ spread and minimal $227 open interest suggest severe illiquidity, making the extreme yield potentially illusory rather than actionable; zero 24-hour volume indicates no recent price discovery. With 1,482 days until expiry and a cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a speculative long-shot contract where the low price may reflect thin trading rather than genuine consensus that Yavaş is unlikely to win.
Resolution rules
If Mansur Yavaş wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTURKEYPRES-28-MYAV yes 100