Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 75% probability of UFO file release, but the extreme 422% implied yield on the No side suggests significant tail risk that traders are pricing in—likely reflecting uncertainty around Trump's actual follow-through on campaign promises and potential national security objections.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 75% probability of UFO file release, but the extreme 422% implied yield on the No side suggests significant tail risk that traders are pricing in—likely reflecting uncertainty around Trump's actual follow-through on campaign promises and potential national security objections. With $39,987 open interest and only $2,218 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to OI, and the 207% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced substantial price swings despite the tight 4¢ spread. The 260-day timeframe and neutral regime (0.409 score) leave considerable room for information arrival to shift expectations, though the 1.0/hour info rate suggests steady news flow rather than imminent catalysts.
Resolution rules
If the federal government has released, before Jan 1, 2027, previously unreleased documents, audio files, or video files regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (“UAP”), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUAPFILES-27 yes 100