Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 72% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Before November
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$79
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?: Before August
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-AUG01-26
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Nov 1, 2026?: Before November
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI--26NOV01
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?: Before October
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-OCT01-26
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-JAN01-27
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Sep 1, 2026?: Before September
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI--26SEP01
Analysis
This market assesses whether Lil Uzi Vert will release a new album before August 1, 2026—just five weeks from today. The 35-cent price reflects low near-term likelihood, with stronger conviction for a release by January 2027 (78 cents). The gap between these probabilities suggests traders expect a fall or winter 2026 album more than an imminent summer drop. Key drivers include the artist's historical release patterns, any announced tour dates or promotional activity, and recent social media signals about new music. The August 1 deadline is the primary near-term catalyst; if passed without announcement, probability would likely shift toward later 2026 or early 2027 timeframes. Current low volume on most contracts indicates limited trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Lil Uzi Vert's typical album release frequency and past timing patterns between projects
- ›Public announcements, social media posts, or producer credits indicating active album completion or imminent drop
- ›Tour dates, festival appearances, or promotional events scheduled for July-August 2026 that could signal a summer release window
- ›Industry reporting or leaks from collaborators, label executives, or music retailers regarding finalized release dates
- ›Comparison of the August 2026 price (35¢) to the January 2027 price (78¢) suggests market belief in a fall/winter 2026 release rather than immediate availability
What moved the line
- Jul 19Before 2027↓41pp72→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before 2027↑36pp31→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before November↑27pp29→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Before November↓25pp54→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before October↑19pp40→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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