Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 81% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
Before October
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$26
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
211 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?: Before August
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-AUG01-26
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-JAN01-27
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?: Before October
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-OCT01-26
Analysis
This market estimates a 47% chance that Lil Uzi Vert releases a new album by August 1, 2026—roughly three months away. The artist has a history of announcing projects with short notice but has also experienced extended gaps between releases. Traders on Kalshi price the probability 9 percentage points higher than Polymarket, suggesting some disagreement about either the timeline or Uzi's announcement patterns. The main drivers are Uzi's recent activity on social media, any preview tracks or official statements from the artist or label, and historical patterns of his release cycles. Resolution will be straightforward: any album released through major streaming platforms or physically by the deadline counts as a yes.
- ›Lil Uzi Vert's last album release was Pink Tape in August 2024—a 20+ month gap could indicate a longer development cycle
- ›The artist frequently teases projects on social media; absence of concrete album announcements or single releases in recent weeks suggests lower immediate probability
- ›Kalshi contracts trading at 47% versus Polymarket at 38% indicates traders disagree on release likelihood or interpretation of available signals
- ›August 1 deadline leaves roughly 95 days from today—sufficient time for a surprise drop but limited for traditional rollout campaigns
- ›Historical pattern shows Uzi sometimes announces albums 2-4 weeks before release, so announcement timing becomes a key near-term indicator
What moved the line
- Jun 3Before 2027↑44pp37→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before August↓5pp54→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Before August↑4pp48→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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