Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 800% annualized yield on the Yes side despite Sean O'Malley being the current bantamweight champion, suggesting the 17¢ price significantly undervalues his title retention odds over the next 259 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 800% annualized yield on the Yes side despite Sean O'Malley being the current bantamweight champion, suggesting the 17¢ price significantly undervalues his title retention odds over the next 259 days. The zero 24h volume combined with only $5,061 open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted yield potentially unrealizable at scale. The 842% realized volatility and 2.77 vol ratio point to erratic pricing behavior, likely driven by the thin order book rather than genuine market uncertainty about O'Malley's title defense prospects.
Also on polymarket at 17¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Sean O'Malley is the UFC Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-SOMA yes 100