Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Petr Yan
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Merab Dvalishvili
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$24
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
145 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Petr Yan
KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-PYAN
Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Umar Nurmagomedov
KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-UNUR
Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Sean O'Malley
KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-SOMA
Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Merab Dvalishvili
KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-MDVA
Analysis
The 21% probability indicates that one specific fighter is currently favored to hold the UFC Bantamweight title on December 31, 2026, though with substantial uncertainty across five potential contenders. The current leader's advantage likely reflects recent performance, ranking position, or recent title status, while the fragmented probabilities—with a runner-up at only 8%—suggest multiple viable paths to the title over the next seven months. Key factors driving this assessment include the current title holder's injury history and willingness to compete, the challenger pipeline's strength and fight scheduling, and the UFC's promotional decisions around booking and timing. Title fights are typically scheduled several months in advance, so the most significant near-term catalyst would be official fight announcements or injuries to current or leading contenders that would reshape the competitive landscape.
- ›Current bantamweight champion's injury status and stated competition timeline through December 2026
- ›Ranking and readiness of top challengers to secure and win a title shot within the next seven months
- ›UFC's historical scheduling patterns for bantamweight title defenses and whether a title fight is already booked
- ›Recent fight outcomes and momentum of the leading contender versus other top-ranked competitors
- ›Any contractual or promotional factors affecting fighter availability or priority in the division
What moved the line
- Aug 5Merab Dvalishvili↑12pp20→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Merab Dvalishvili↓11pp27→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Sean O'Malley↓7pp15→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Petr Yan↓6pp58→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Petr Yan↑4pp50→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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