What is the current probability for "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1654.8% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Magomed Ankalaev holding the UFC Light Heavyweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 1270% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 22¢ pricing and $8,988 open interest suggesting thin liquidity.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/21¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $52.45·OI $9,596.48·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXUFCLHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-MANK

7-day price260 snapshots · 27 regime

15¢8¢ current

Apr 126¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market on Magomed Ankalaev holding the UFC Light Heavyweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 1270% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 22¢ pricing and $8,988 open interest suggesting thin liquidity. The 26¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the realized volatility of 1059% paired with a 3.20 vol ratio indicates substantial recent price swings—the contract has moved from 6¢ to 10¢ over seven days—signaling either incoming information or market uncertainty about Ankalaev's title prospects. With 259 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a speculative position with limited depth rather than a well-calibrated market.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 16¢(Δ -8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 757.6%Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

If Magomed Ankalaev is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1654.8%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 1655%

CRI 12

RV 2171%

VR 6.28

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1654.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1655%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2171%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.28	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

14¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:30:49 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFCLHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-MANK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →