Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1270% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $8 daily volume against $4,397 open interest indicates minimal price discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1270% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $8 daily volume against $4,397 open interest indicates minimal price discovery. The realized volatility of 3053% and cliff risk index of 9 signal this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where the 6¢ price may not reflect true probability of Gaethje holding the lightweight title in late 2026. The recent price movement from 11¢ to 10¢ combined with the 1¢ spread suggests the market lacks sufficient depth to trust the current quote as a reliable probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Justin Gaethje is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-JGAE yes 100