Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $898k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and may face execution challenges.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $898k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and may face execution challenges. The 12¢ price implies a 12% probability for Gaethje to hold the lightweight title in 258 days, but the massive 1037% implied yield on the yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects the difficulty of a current non-champion capturing the belt within this timeframe. The wide 11¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest uncertainty, though the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days indicates relatively stable sentiment despite the extreme yield metrics.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ +6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf42d4830ad24f39a6522dbef1c094517f8d37e283f390a02b3162dac40002d45 yes 100