Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 10¢ spread, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 10¢ spread, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The implied yield of 4560% on the Yes side is a classic artifact of ultra-low probability pricing on illiquid contracts, suggesting the true probability is likely higher than 3% given Borralho's current standing in the middleweight division. The price has declined 67% over seven days (from 2¢ to 1¢), indicating weakening conviction, though with only $4,262 open interest this movement may reflect minimal actual trading rather than meaningful market sentiment.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Caio Borralho is the UFC Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26-CBOR yes 100