Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 55% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sean Strickland
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Khamzat Chimaev
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$462
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Sean Strickland
KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26-SSTR
Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Khamzat Chimaev
KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26-KCHI
Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Nassourdine Imavov
KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26-NIMA
Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Caio Borralho
KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26-CBOR
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Khamzat Chimaev will hold the UFC Middleweight title on December 31, 2026. At 65%, the market suggests better-than-even odds he retains or captures the belt by year-end, with Sean Strickland priced as the main alternative challenger at 20%. The current assessment appears driven by Chimaev's ranking position and perceived trajectory, though title outcomes depend heavily on injury status, fight scheduling, and performance in upcoming bouts. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Chimaev will secure and successfully defend a title bout within the seven-month window. Any significant injury, unexpected loss, or title fight cancellation would substantially shift these probabilities downward.
- ›Khamzat Chimaev's current ranking position and proximity to a title shot as of May 2026
- ›Sean Strickland's pricing at 20% suggests meaningful probability he either retains a title he holds or captures it before year-end
- ›UFC title fight scheduling and whether a middleweight championship bout is booked before December 31, 2026
- ›Injury history and fight availability for top contenders in the middleweight division during this period
- ›The number of viable contenders and whether any tier-one challenger emerges unexpectedly to displace current title prospects
What moved the line
- Jun 17Nassourdine Imavov↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Nassourdine Imavov↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Sean Strickland↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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