Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above -0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above -0.5%?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $578 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable despite the balanced 50% implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $578 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable despite the balanced 50% implied probability. The astronomical implied yields (7293% for Yes, 3521% for No) reflect the minimal capital at risk rather than genuine market conviction, and the 6¢ spread is wide relative to the contract value. With just 7 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this contract faces imminent resolution risk, though the recent price decline from 44¢ to 41¢ suggests modest recent bearish sentiment on UK retail sales beating the -0.5% threshold.
Resolution rules
If United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above -0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T-0.5 yes 100