Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 2206% implied yield on the Yes side despite negligible 24-hour volume and only $10.8k open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted odds rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 2206% implied yield on the Yes side despite negligible 24-hour volume and only $10.8k open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted odds rather than genuine conviction. The 7-day price recovery from 6¢ to 9¢ combined with a 1463% realized volatility and 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates sharp recent moves in a thin market vulnerable to manipulation or data errors. With 259 days to expiry and a 0.4/hour information arrival rate, the market remains highly speculative, but the extreme yield asymmetry and zero daily volume warrant skepticism about whether these prices reflect actual market sentiment or merely wide bid-ask spreads on minimal liquidity.
Also on polymarket at 15¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Anthropic before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANTH yes 100