Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market with just $1,948.62 open interest and zero 24-hour volume is pricing in only a 10% probability of U.S.
Analysis
This illiquid market with just $1,948.62 open interest and zero 24-hour volume is pricing in only a 10% probability of U.S. government stake acquisition in Freeport-McMoRan by year-end 2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1,423.7% implied yield for Yes positions—suggesting either significant mispricing or genuine tail-risk hedging demand. The 2-cent spread and moderate cliff risk (10/100) indicate thin liquidity could amplify price swings, though the 259-day timeframe provides reasonable runway for fundamental developments around the copper/mining company to materialize.
Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Freeport-McMoRan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-FCX yes 100