Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,919.59 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,919.59 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. The astronomical 3,380% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in a genuinely remote scenario, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action (holding at 4¢) indicate minimal recent conviction. With 259 days to expiry and a 24 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a liquid prediction.
Also on polymarket at 27¢(Δ -17¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of IonQ before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-IONQ yes 100