Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 18¢ price reflects a modest 18% probability of U.S.
Analysis
The 18¢ price reflects a modest 18% probability of U.S. government equity stake acquisition in Lockheed Martin by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 641% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. Volume is extremely thin at $4.31 in 24 hours against $10,988 open interest, creating liquidity concerns and potential for sharp moves, particularly given the recent 2¢ decline over seven days. The moderate cliff risk score of 5 and neutral regime indicate this is pricing as a low-probability tail event rather than reflecting imminent policy shifts, though a government equity stake in a major defense contractor would represent a material geopolitical development.
Also on polymarket at 28¢(Δ -9¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Lockheed Martin before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LMT yes 100