Will Shopify Rebellion win the Shopify Rebellion vs. Evil Geniuses Academy Valorant match?

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will Shopify Rebellion win the Shopify Rebellion vs. Evil Geniuses Academy Valorant match?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $46 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a wide 13¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (1624% on Yes, 3097% on No) that are artifacts of minimal trading rather than genuine opportunity.

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64¢

Bid/Ask 64/66¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $3,673.37·OI $3,650.29·Closes May 5, 2026·14d remaining

KXVALORANTGAME-26APR211900SREGA-SR

7-day price62 snapshots · 7 regime

65¢64¢ current

Apr 1825¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $46 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a wide 13¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (1624% on Yes, 3097% on No) that are artifacts of minimal trading rather than genuine opportunity. The 71¢ price has remained flat over 7 days despite the match being originally scheduled for April 21 and now trading 16 days before the May 5 close, suggesting either a postponement or data lag that warrants verification before trading. The neutral regime score and Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicate low predictability, making this an illiquid, potentially stale market unsuitable for meaningful position-taking.

Resolution rules

If Shopify Rebellion wins the VCL North America: Stage 2 2026: Shopify Rebellion vs. Evil Geniuses Academy Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1402.3%

IY (No) 4836.7%

Adj IY 4539%

CRI 2

RV 1979%

VR 2.69

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1402.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4836.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4539%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1979%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:52:38 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVALORANTGAME-26APR211900SREGA-SR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →