Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Natus Vincere Valorant match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will NRG win the NRG vs. XLG Gaming Valorant match
Will NRG win the NRG vs. XLG Gaming Valorant match?: NRG
KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN061000NRGXLG-NRG
Cluster 2
Will XLG Gaming win the NRG vs. XLG Gaming Valorant match
Will XLG Gaming win the NRG vs. XLG Gaming Valorant match?: XLG Gaming
KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN061000NRGXLG-XLG
Cluster 3
Will Team Vitality win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Team Vitality Valorant match
Cluster 4
Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Team Vitality Valorant match
Cluster 5
Will Global Esports win the Global Esports vs. Leviatán Esports Valorant match
Cluster 6
Will FULL SENSE win the FUT Esports vs. FULL SENSE Valorant match
Will FULL SENSE win the FUT Esports vs. FULL SENSE Valorant match?: FULL SENSE
KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN071000FUTFS-FS
Cluster 7
Will Leviatán Esports win the Global Esports vs. Leviatán Esports Valorant match
Cluster 8
Will FUT Esports win the FUT Esports vs. FULL SENSE Valorant match
Will FUT Esports win the FUT Esports vs. FULL SENSE Valorant match?: FUT Esports
KXVALORANTGAME-26JUN071000FUTFS-FUT
What moved the line
- Jun 4XLG Gaming↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Team Vitality↓3pp85→82¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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