Will exactly 2 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will exactly 2 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market is extremely illiquid with only $74 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is extremely illiquid with only $74 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable. The 11,071% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of an ultra-low-probability outcome priced at the floor, suggesting minimal conviction behind the 3% probability rather than genuine market consensus. With 107 days to expiry and a 32 cliff risk index, this contract faces significant uncertainty around the Supreme Court decision timing, making it a speculative position rather than a reliable prediction vehicle.
Resolution rules
If exactly 2 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVRASCOTUSVOTE-26-2 yes 100