Will Desire Doue be in the France World Cup final squad?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Desire Doue be in the France World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $5.24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 95¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread.

██████████████████████████████████████░░
95¢
Bid/Ask 85/95¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $5.24·Closes Jun 17, 2026·56d remaining
KXWCSQUAD-26FRA-DDOU

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $5.24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 95¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—110.5% for Yes versus 3549.2% for No—suggest the market is severely mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Doue's selection. With 58 days to the June 2026 close and a high Cliff Risk Index of 6, this thin market lacks sufficient depth to confidently trade at such an extreme probability.

Resolution rules

If Desire Doue is selected for the final squad for the France national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 114.5%
IY (No) 3675.3%
Adj IY 1838%
CRI 6
Overround 23.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)114.5%
IY (No)3675.3%
Adj IY1838%
CRI6
Overround23.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:33:02 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXWCSQUAD-26FRA-DDOU yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions