What is the current probability for "Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4828.6% and 4.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $74·OI $62·Closes Dec 31, 2026·244d remaining

KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-GRE

7-day price13 snapshots · 1 regime

39¢3¢ current

Apr 301¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Green Day performs (or it is announced that they will perform at) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show during the official event timeframe, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4828.6%

IY (No) 4.6%

Adj IY 4829%

CRI 32

RV 41103%

VR 56.61

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4828.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4829%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	41103%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	56.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:10:02 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-GRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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