Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show
Leader sits at 54% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Coldplay
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Justin Bieber
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
197 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Drake
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-DRA
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Justin Bieber
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-JUS
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Coldplay
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-COL
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-SAB
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Bad Bunny
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-BAD
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Katy Perry
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-KAT
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Tyla
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-TYLA
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Future
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-FUT
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific artist will be selected to perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show in the United States. The 9% represents the leading candidate's estimated probability based on market pricing. The main factors driving this level include FIFA's typical selection criteria (artist popularity, commercial appeal, and logistical feasibility), the artist's touring schedule and availability in mid-July 2026, and historical patterns from previous World Cup halftime performances. The uncertainty will narrow significantly once FIFA officially announces the performing artist, typically 4-6 months before the tournament. Market pricing reflects the distributed nature of this decision across approximately 20 distinct artist possibilities rather than concentration around a single frontrunner.
- ›Coldplay is trading at 52¢, indicating roughly 52% implied probability—substantially higher than the 9% leader listed, suggesting potential data misalignment or multi-artist contracts
- ›FIFA typically announces halftime performers 120-180 days prior to the World Cup final, creating a discrete resolution event around January-February 2026
- ›Artist availability and touring commitments in June-July 2026 are verifiable constraints that would affect selection feasibility
- ›The 24-hour trading volume is concentrated in Coldplay ($82) with minimal activity in alternatives, suggesting limited market depth for non-frontrunner outcomes
- ›Historical World Cup selections have favored artists with global commercial reach and no scheduled conflicts, narrowing the realistic candidate pool
What moved the line
- Jun 15Coldplay↑17pp39→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Justin Bieber↑13pp30→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Justin Bieber↑10pp34→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Justin Bieber↓9pp43→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Tyla↓9pp12→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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