Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $616 in open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $616 in open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 946% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests significant mispricing, though the extreme cliff risk index of 7 indicates structural fragility in the contract design. With 258 days to expiration and Gauff's demonstrated Grand Slam potential (she reached the US Open final in 2023), the 13% probability appears notably pessimistic, but traders should demand substantial liquidity improvements before committing capital.
Resolution rules
If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU yes 100