SimpleFunctions
8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 160d

Will Victoria Mboko win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

11%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

11%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$173

8 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

160 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 20% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 20% on 2026-07-23
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$164

Cluster 2

Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$7

Cluster 3

Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$2

Cluster 4

Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Jasmine Paolini win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Leylah Fernandez win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Elina Svitolina win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 20% probability reflects the market's assessment that Victoria Mboko will win at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2026. The relatively low odds reflect both her current ranking outside the top contenders and the general difficulty of winning a Grand Slam, where only a handful of players typically contend each year. Market probability could shift based on Mboko's performance during the 2026 Grand Slam tournaments (Australian Open in January, French Open in May/June, Wimbledon in June/July, US Open in August/September) and how her current form compares to established champions. The main catalyst for resolution is the completion of all four Grand Slam events throughout 2026, with each tournament representing a significant opportunity to either confirm or reduce her winning chances.

  • Mboko's current ranking and recent performance trend heading into 2026 Grand Slam season
  • Head-to-head competitive positioning against established tour winners and other rising players in her draw
  • Completion of all four Grand Slam tournaments throughout 2026, with early results informing market expectations for later events
  • Injury status and playing schedule consistency across the full calendar year
  • Relative market pricing of other young players like Mirra Andreeva (8¢) versus Mboko (20¢) as indicators of perceived competitive gap

What moved the line

  • Jul 21Aryna Sabalenka3pp2124¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 22Aryna Sabalenka3pp2421¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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