What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 117.7% and 175.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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55¢

Bid/Ask 55/55¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $2,537.47·OI $133,183.68·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T115

7-day price548 snapshots · 104 regime

83¢55¢ current

Apr 828¢Apr 22

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ +44¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 37529.3%Close-time delta 5900h

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 117.7%

IY (No) 175.9%

Adj IY 176%

CRI 1

RV 778%

VR 6.04

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	117.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	175.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	176%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	778%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.04	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 3:20:17 AM

SF edge 22.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (4)

NO +22¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +24¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +30¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +23¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T115 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →